Prediction Markets: This Politician Wants to Ban Candidates from Betting on Themselves in the USA

You have to bet. It’s not voluntary, you’re in it. A Democratic elected official, a rival caught red-handed, and a tailor-made bill. In the United States, Representative Don Davis wants to prohibit federal candidates from betting on their own elections. His target is prediction markets, those platforms where contracts are bought on the outcome of an event. The timing is charming, as David Lisnard's odds on Polymarket have been causing a stir in France since September. Hence the same question arises on both sides of the Atlantic: who can bet on an election without influencing its outcome? Key points of this article:

• Don Davis has introduced a bill aimed at prohibiting American federal candidates from betting on their own elections.
• His Republican rival Laurie Buckhout received a three-year suspension from Kalshi for betting on her own race.

No Betting on Your Own Race Act: What the Bill Proposes

Don Davis, a Democratic representative from North Carolina, introduced his bill this week. The text targets federal candidates, but also their spouses, dependent children, and campaign committees, according to CNBC. It prohibits them from buying, selling, or holding contracts related to their own race. Victory, participation, vote share, margin, or ranking, everything is included, including primaries. The penalty reaches $10,000 per violation, or three times the net gain if that amount is higher.

The elected official initially justified his approach with a sports analogy: "We don’t want our athletes betting on their matches. A candidate for federal office should be treated exactly the same way." One might find humor (if one can say so) in the timing. In August, Kalshi indeed suspended his Republican rival, Laurie Buckhout, for three years, with a penalty of $2,589.96. She had, however, bet less than $1,000 on her own race. "I bet on myself. Literally. It was a stupid mistake," she admitted. A confidence that comes at a high price, certainly. The platform had already sidelined three other candidates for five years in April. In Congress, the Senate has adopted a resolution targeting senators and staff, while the House has not voted on any comparable text.

Lisnard on Polymarket: An Odds is Not a Poll

In France, David Lisnard's rise fuels debates on X. The mayor of Cannes, a potential candidate for the 2027 presidential election, saw his "yes" contract rise from about 3% to 8% between September 6 and 13. Then it reached 13.3 cents on October 6, according to our count. In other words, bettors give him a 13.3% chance of winning, which is not the same as an intention to vote. In contrast, Ifop only measured him at 3.5% at the end of September.

This market remains a thin market. On October 4, $203,000 changed hands in one day through 137 wallets, a record for this contract. Already, on September 30, a recent account had bet more than $105,000 against the mayor. A Yale study cited by L'ADN concludes that only 3% of accounts actually move prices. Lisnard himself responded on X: "Stop wasting your time trying to convince me: I’m going to vote for myself." However, Le Canard enchaîné mentioned a possible manipulation, without evidence at this stage, according to Bourse Inside.

Insider Trading and Manipulation: Who Has the Right to Bet?

A candidate knows the state of their campaign better than anyone else. That’s why Kalshi’s rules prohibit betting on an event one can influence. Davis thus spoke of "trading on insider information" regarding his opponent. But the opposite also exists: betting to inflate odds, create buzz, and then present oneself as the favorite.

In France, betting on an electoral deadline is not allowed, let’s remember already in 2024. The ANJ, the gaming regulator, has classified Polymarket as an illegal gambling offer. It subsequently ordered the site to be blocked on July 16, 2026. But no French text targets the candidates themselves. Davis's law, if passed, would therefore be ahead of Paris. Lisnard claims not to know how the platform works, according to Bourse Inside, which says nothing about his supporters. Total gray area.

Prediction markets now weigh heavily enough for legislators to take notice. Polymarket and Kalshi have surpassed $150 billion in volume, and each election becomes a playground for those wanting to test public opinion with a few thousand dollars. But Don Davis's bill arrives late, less than a month before the U.S. midterm elections set for November 3, 2026.

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