War Economy in China: What Risks for Bitcoin and Markets?

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16 Sep 2026Mattis Meichler

Beijing Shifts to a Mobilization Economy

China revised its national defense mobilization law this summer, a text that had not been modified for 16 years. It will come into effect on October 1.

For the first time, the law explicitly defines mobilization as the ability to ensure a "rapid transition between peace and war" and to transform economic and social power into defense power. It no longer concerns only the military industry but the entire civilian economy.

The framework covers public and private enterprises, including subsidiaries of foreign groups established in China. It targets transportation, health, telecommunications, cybersecurity, data, software, and critical infrastructure.

Another major novelty is that the law introduces the concept of expropriation, not just requisition. Authorities will be able to seize equipment, intellectual property, data, and software, and redirect civilian production lines for military uses.

Preparation for Taiwan and Decoupling from the West

Officially, the revision is not directed against a specific region. However, military experts see it as the logistical foundations of a scenario around Taiwan. Beijing is learning lessons from the war in Ukraine, where major powers must produce munitions, drones, and spare parts over several years.

The United States traditionally targets 2027 as a pivotal date for the modernization of the People's Liberation Army. However, Japanese and Taiwanese analysts estimate that the risk of military action will become truly serious between 2030 and 2035, once deficiencies in amphibious transport and logistics are addressed.

China is also anticipating the massive sanctions that would accompany such a conflict. The three major Chinese oil groups have allocated approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, or nearly 343 billion dollars, to enhance the country's energy security over a decade.

A Cumulative Crisis Feared for Markets

This shift occurs in a context where several shocks could accumulate. A conflict over Taiwan would simultaneously disrupt semiconductors, Asian maritime trade, oil prices, and global financial flows. The oil disruptions observed in the Middle East in recent months have already demonstrated the fragility of China's energy chain.

As a reminder, China is aggressively strengthening its gold reserves, an additional signal of preparation for an environment of sanctions and dedollarization.

What Impact for Bitcoin and Cryptos?

For Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptos, such a scenario is ambiguous. In the short term, the announcement of a major conflict would likely trigger a wave of risk-off, with liquidation of volatile assets. The crashes of March 2020 and May 2022 showed that Bitcoin remains correlated with tech stocks during macro shocks.

In the longer term, however, a sustainable regime of sanctions, asset freezes, and distrust towards the dollar would reinforce the thesis of Bitcoin as a neutral safe-haven asset, non-seizable and outside the traditional banking system. The question of Taiwan would also weigh on the crypto ecosystem, as the island considers establishing a strategic reserve in BTC.

However, it is important to nuance this. Legally preparing for war is not proof that a decision to go to war has been made. Beijing is primarily building a resilient economy, capable of absorbing both a conflict and a pandemic, a climate crisis, or a disruption of supply chains. But the scale of the framework seems to indicate that China now considers a major conflict a credible scenario.

Sources: Economy.ac, Engin Eroglu on X

Mattis Meichler330 articles
A journalist passionate about Blockchain, the Web3 ecosystem, and Digital Art, I chronicle the evolution of these emerging sectors.