Bitcoin's Fate Vote... $90,000 Outlook if Passed

[Mexico City = Shim Young-jae, Correspondent] The U.S. Senate is set to vote on a procedural measure to advance the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at structuring the digital asset (cryptocurrency) market. As the likelihood of the vote passing remains uncertain, analyses suggest that Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP could benefit from the bill's advancement.

The Senate plans to vote on the cloture motion for the CLARITY Act on the 15th (local time). If the cloture motion passes, discussions on the bill will proceed, bringing it one step closer to a final vote. However, passing this vote does not necessarily mean the CLARITY Act will be enacted.

50% Chance of Passing... $90,000 Outlook for Bitcoin

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, assessed the likelihood of passing this procedural vote at about 50%.

Sun stated, "The current chance of passing the procedural vote is roughly 50%, akin to a coin toss, and the likelihood of the bill being enacted into law by the end of the year is less than 20%."

Lacey Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, also analyzed that market participants are not building positions based on the assumption of the CLARITY Act's certain passage.

TDX Strategies, a quantitative analysis-based digital asset trading firm, projected that Bitcoin would react strongly if the cloture motion passes.

In their daily report, TDX Strategies analyzed, "If an unexpected favorable outcome occurs, Bitcoin will show aggressive upward movement, breaking through the key resistance level of $82,000 and targeting $88,000 to $90,000."

Conversely, if the vote fails, Bitcoin could adjust down to $73,000.

However, both Sun and Zhang analyzed that Bitcoin might lag behind other digital assets in terms of relative benefits from the bill's advancement.

This is because Bitcoin's regulatory status, ETF accessibility, and infrastructure for institutional investors are already relatively well established.

Zhang identified Ethereum as the strongest relative beneficiary. She explained that Ethereum still faces regulatory uncertainty and plays a role as a payment layer for stablecoins, decentralized finance (DeFi), and tokenized assets.

Sun remarked, "If today's procedural vote passes smoothly, digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to show immediate and direct positive reactions, and the market will begin to seek assets that will benefit from the changing regulatory framework."

Solana and XRP May Also Benefit... Attention on Uniswap and Aave

Sun also analyzed that Solana and XRP could benefit if the CLARITY Act progresses.

If the jurisdictional boundaries of the SEC and CFTC become clearer, it could improve institutional investor access, related product launches, and the long-term capital inflow environment.

Zhang projected that XRP might react strongly. However, she noted that some expectations due to regulatory clarification have already been reflected in the price.

Tokens related to decentralized finance were also highlighted as targets of interest.

According to CoinDesk, Zhang and Sun analyzed that if the CLARITY Act clearly defines protective measures for non-custodial software developers and decentralized protocols, Uniswap (UNI) and Aave (AAVE) could show higher price sensitivity.

However, Zhang emphasized that today's vote is a procedure to determine whether to end the debate, not the final passage of the bill.

She explained that if prices spike briefly after the vote and then decline again, it could be seen as short-term trading reacting to the news.

On the other hand, for a sustained price reevaluation due to regulatory changes, Ethereum needs to show stronger momentum than Bitcoin. She added that it is also necessary to confirm whether the strength of Uniswap and Aave continues and whether spot trading volume increases compared to leveraged futures. This trend should also continue over several trading days.

Fed Rate Decision Also a Variable... Bitcoin Testing 50-Week Line

Sun identified the macroeconomic environment as an important variable. He warned that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises interest rates on the 16th, the positive regulatory effects from the CLARITY Act's advancement could be offset by liquidity tightening.

Bitcoin is also at a technically significant price level. According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain an upward trend for three consecutive weeks above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA).

Galaxy Research analysis indicates that the 50-week moving average is the price level that has limited the upward momentum of all bear market rebounds since November last year.

If Bitcoin fails to break through the 50-week moving average again, Galaxy Research analyzed that a new selling wave could emerge, rapidly expanding the downward movement.

Thus, the Senate's procedural vote on the CLARITY Act takes place at a time when Bitcoin is also at a technically significant price level.

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