Gold above all. Guest on the podcast The Diary of a CEO, Ray Dalio revealed that he keeps about 1% of his portfolio in BTC. The founder of Bridgewater acknowledges a fundamental quality of cryptocurrency: like the yellow metal, its supply cannot be arbitrarily increased by a government or central bank. The investor thus classifies Bitcoin among "hard" monetary assets, to which he generally recommends allocating between 5% and 15% of a portfolio. However, caution is advised: this allocation does not concern only BTC. In this defensive pocket, he gives a significantly larger place to gold.
For Ray Dalio, Bitcoin constitutes a form of rare money, protected against monetary creation due to its cap of 21 million units. However, he only grants it limited exposure.
Gold seems to him more robust for several reasons. It can be held physically, does not constitute the debt of any company or administration, and does not depend on the functioning of a computer network. He also believes it offers more privacy and is harder to seize when kept directly by its owner.
Bitcoin would, on the contrary, be exposed to advances in quantum computing, which could theoretically threaten certain cryptographic signatures. Its public ledger also facilitates the monitoring of transactions, their taxation, and potential restrictions imposed by states.
On the podcast The Diary of a CEO, Mr. Dalio thus doubts that central banks will ever hold significant amounts of BTC. They wish, according to him, to preserve confidentiality and control over their operations. He cites the example of Russia: nearly $300 billion in reserves held abroad were frozen after the invasion of Ukraine, while its gold stored on national territory could not be immobilized in the same way.
However, this statement deserves a nuance. The Czech National Bank has created a $1 million experimental wallet including bitcoin, although it remains outside its official reserves. The United States also possesses a strategic reserve of BTC from seizures, managed by the Treasury and not by the Federal Reserve.
Ray Dalio's reflection, however, goes far beyond the duel between Bitcoin and gold. The investor fears the formation of a bubble around artificial intelligence, fueled by high valuations and the use of debt. A rise in rates, a sudden need for liquidity, or a geopolitical shock could trigger forced sales and bring several markets down.
At the same time, the accumulation of public deficits could force some states to restructure their debts, print more money, or impose capital controls. A scenario that would strengthen the interest in rare assets, which cannot be directly devalued by monetary creation.
Ray Dalio's response, however, is not to bet everything on gold or Bitcoin. His main advice remains diversification among stocks, bonds, real estate, and "hard monetary assets". Bitcoin thus finds its place in his portfolio, but as a limited complement. It serves as a possible protection against monetary devaluation; gold remains, in his eyes, the primary refuge.
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