Trump Plummets to 32% on Economy, Political Bets in Crypto Heat Up

Unprecedented low. Only 32% of Americans approve of Donald Trump's economic management, a level he never reached during his first term. While the White House absorbs this blow, another thermometer is going haywire elsewhere. On Polymarket, the blockchain-based betting platform, traders are increasingly wagering on a fully Democratic Congress in 2026. Two barometers, one underlying trend.

Key Points {#h-key-points}

• Trump's approval on the economy drops to 32%, down from 40% at the start of his second term
• On Polymarket, the probability of a fully Democratic Congress rises to 45%
• American lawmakers are already investigating potential insider trading around these predictive markets

32%, the figure that haunts the White House {#h-32-the-figure-that-haunts-the-white-house}

The AP-NORC poll, reported by Fortune on August 2, is blunt. Only three in ten Americans approve of the president's economic management, down from 40% at the start of his second term. Even among Republicans, support is eroding: 69% today, down from 78% in January 2025.

A supporter interviewed by the agency summarizes the mood better than any statistic. He says he has to "borrow before going grocery shopping." This does not resemble any campaign promise.

On Polymarket, Democrats are laughing nervously, but they are laughing nonetheless {#h-on-polymarket-democrats-laugh-nervously-but-laugh-nonetheless}

The odds do not lie, at least not in the same way as a phone poll. On the "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms" market, nearly $7.6 million has already changed hands.

As of this writing (August 3, 2026, at 12:15 PM), a Democratic tsunami, combining both the House and Senate, peaks at an implied probability of 45%, far ahead of a split Congress (Republican Senate, Democratic House) at 37%, a reduced Republican tsunami at 18%, and an inverse scenario (Democratic Senate, Republican House) nearly nonexistent at 1.8%. This price is not set by an institute. It is set by thousands of unknowns betting their own money on what they truly believe will happen in November.

Polymarket and Kalshi, a crypto thermometer that Washington is watching closely {#h-polymarket-and-kalshi-a-crypto-thermometer-that-washington-is-watching-closely}

These platforms are not just casual bets. Polymarket settles its positions in USDC (a stablecoin, a cryptocurrency meant to be worth one dollar at all times) on the Polygon blockchain, making every transaction traceable and every odds verifiable in real-time, without waiting for the next phone call from a polling institute. Kalshi, its major rival regulated by the CFTC (the U.S. futures market watchdog), offers a nearly identical contract and displays similar figures.

Congress is interested, and not really to applaud: lawmakers have opened an investigation into potential insider trading around these markets, suspecting that some bettors know more than the general public even before the information is released.

Still, both the poll and the predictive market tell, each in its own way, the same story. One captures household sentiment regarding gas prices and groceries. The other captures the money that unknowns are willing to risk on an electoral outcome that is still far from decided. When both point in the same direction, it is likely more than just a statistical coincidence. The regulatory battle over predictive markets is just beginning, and it promises to keep Washington occupied well beyond the November election.