Sports Betting and Predictive Markets: The New Retirement Plan for Youth

When Sports Betting Becomes a Retirement Strategy

It is as much a cultural shift as it is a financial one. According to a recent survey by the Betterment platform of 1,000 American individual investors, 26% of Generation Z members, born between 1997 and 2007, now consider sports betting a deliberate and sustainable component of their financial strategy. This figure is only 14% among millennials, 6% among Generation X, and 1% among baby boomers.

Even more striking, over half of young investors say they redirected money initially intended for investment towards sports betting over the past year. Only one-third of Generation Z respondents claim they do not participate at all.

"When a predictive market or a betting site starts to resemble a retirement strategy, we have a problem," summarizes Sarah Levy, CEO of Betterment.

A Diminishing Access to Home Ownership

The dream of homeownership is slipping away for an entire generation. In the United States, the number of home buyers has just fallen to its lowest recorded level, according to data reported by Barchart. The fixed rate on 30-year mortgages remains stuck around 6.67%, locking out first-time buyers from credit access.

France is not escaping this phenomenon either. Over the past decade, the housing effort rate for first-time homebuyers has risen from 30% to nearly 38%, while the personal contribution required by banks has nearly doubled. Many young workers have sufficient income to save, but not enough to cross the credit threshold.

Cryptos and Predictive Markets: The New Toolbox

Faced with this wall, young people are changing their strategy. A survey by Northwestern Mutual, reported by the Manhattan Institute, indicates that 32% of Generation Z members say they bet on cryptocurrencies or sports betting, while 35% of millennials hold cryptocurrencies and 24% bet on sports.

In France, the trend is similar. More than 50% of new investors under 35 hold crypto assets, compared to about 25% in the overall population. The goal is no longer to slowly grow capital but to achieve quick gains, even at the cost of assuming extreme volatility.

Adding to this are predictive markets, platforms that allow betting on the outcome of an event, whether sporting or political. Polymarket, Kalshi, and more recently Hyperliquid are capturing a young audience, straddling the line between betting and speculative investment. The brokerage Robinhood, which launched its own predictive markets in 2025, describes this activity as the fastest-growing unit in its history.

An Embraced Financial Nihilism

This reflects a certain disenchantment with the economy. According to analyst Eric Balchunas, online betting, Bitcoin, and socialist politicians are, to varying degrees, different responses to the same problem: the lack of accessibility for those who do not already own assets. He points to inflation as a silent tax that erodes the purchasing power of non-asset holders.

The employment context reinforces this shift. The global youth unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 reached 12.4% in 2025, equating to 67 million unemployed individuals, according to the International Labour Organization. In North America, it rose from 8.3% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2025.

As a result, a generation perceives betting as a rational shortcut to ownership. Young people have internalized the idea that the pay-as-you-go pension system will no longer suffice, with the net replacement rate dropping from 75% for those born in the 1950s to less than 60% for those born after 1990.