Bitcoin Shows Signs of Bottom Before Final Capitulation, Says Analyst

• Losses confirm a bottom, but do not reach the "depression" levels of previous cycles.
• The market will choose between a final drop or absorption of supply by institutional demand.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing technical patterns associated with the lows of its historical cycles while trading 50% below its peak. The unrealized loss of long-term capital exceeded the speculative threshold this week, placing the coin in a phase that can be interpreted as the beginning of a bearish market bottom formation and long-term accumulation.

Market analyst and investor Ignacio Moreno de Vicente explained that the adjusted NUPL indicator (aNUPL) ---a metric that measures the unrealized gains or losses of investors based on how long they hold their assets--- is revealing a condition that the price of Bitcoin alone does not show.

According to the specialist, losses have surpassed the market's speculative threshold and have reached the base of long-term holders. Moreno de Vicente emphasized that the capital with the strongest technical conviction is bearing the greatest financial pressure of the current cycle.

At each significant bottom of the cycle, long-term holders had deeper unrealized losses than the market as a whole, meaning that the group typically associated with the strongest conviction and least sensitivity to volatility is carrying greater unrealized stress than the market overall, the analyst specified.

Moreno de Vicente added that the current structure fits that pattern of historical declines. As shown in a chart from CryptoQuant, the aNUPL indicator for long-term holders (LTH) broke the zero line and entered negative territory ---represented in red on the chart---, which would confirm, according to his analysis, that the asset has exited the ordinary correction phase.

However, the current behavior differs from previous cycles in its intensity. Unlike the market bottoms recorded in 2015, 2019, and 2022, where the LTH range sharply declined to lower depression levels, the reading observed in 2026 shows a significantly more moderate decline, as seen in the previous chart.

Due to this visual and metric difference, the analyst clarified that the metric supports a bottoming process, not a confirmed terminal low. This means that the behavior of the asset will depend on how the selling pressure is absorbed in the coming weeks.

In his assessment, there are two scenarios for price development. The first suggests that the market may still need another stage of capitulation to bring LTH losses to historical extremes, which would imply additional declines.

The second scenario suggests that the cycle could bottom with less damage if institutional demand and a structurally stronger base of holders absorb the supply first. Moreno de Vicente emphasized that history provides a reference range, not a mandatory threshold.

Meanwhile, the trader known on social media as Doctor Profit indicated that, in his opinion, the price of Bitcoin is close to reaching the low of its current cycle. According to this analyst, the realized price indicator by age activated a signal recorded only in 2015, 2019, and 2022, as reported by CriptoNoticias.

Doctor Profit stated that we are now witnessing a bearish market bottom formation and a phase of long-term accumulation. Technical readings reflect that the current pressure coincides with historical institutional buying zones.

Regarding the immediate outlook, Moreno de Vicente warned that the next move matters more than the snapshot. Data suggests that volatility will continue to mark Bitcoin's behavior.

A deeper drop in the LTH aNUPL, along with renewed price weakness and the effective realization of losses, would resemble a classic capitulation, the analyst stated regarding the possibility of investors selling massively at a loss out of panic.

Conversely, a recovery of the indicator towards the zero level while the price holds a higher low would suggest that the financial pressure on this group has peaked and that demand is absorbing the sales. This behavior would mark the beginning of a trend change, he notes.

In conclusion, Moreno de Vicente says: Bitcoin is showing a condition repeatedly associated with macro bottoms, but not yet the emotional and financial exhaustion that made previous bottoms unmistakable.

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