The dollar rises slightly and moves away from $1.500, although the city maintains expectations anchored on the exchange rate

The official dollar moves away this Thursday from the barrier of $1.500, a level that in recent weeks has become a key reference for the market. While the city continues to monitor signals of official intervention, exchange rate expectations remain contained, and analysts anticipate, for now, a moderate depreciation towards the end of the year.

On Thursday, the wholesale exchange rate operates at $1.492, after accumulating three consecutive days of decline. Thus, the quotation remains 24.6% below the ceiling of the exchange rate band, currently set at $1.858.35.

The dynamics of recent days have reinforced among operators the perception that the economic team seeks to prevent the currency from sustainably exceeding $1.500, mainly through interventions in the futures and dollar-linked bond markets.

Ignacio Morales, head of Investments at Wise Capital, stated that "the market perceives a clear message from the Central Bank: the wholesale dollar will not exceed $1.500." He explained that to maintain that limit, the entity interrupted the purchase of currencies and sold bonds in the secondary market, a strategy that allowed for liquidity absorption and provided exchange rate coverage.

The intervention, however, opens another front for the economic team: to keep the dollar contained without deepening the liquidity shortage or exerting excessive pressure on interest rates in pesos.

At the same time, the BCRA began August with a more moderate pace of reserve accumulation. According to PPI, purchases averaged $22 million daily, the lowest pace for a full week since the beginning of the accumulation program in January.

Throughout 2026, however, the monetary authority has accumulated purchases of over $13 billion, while gross international reserves remain close to $50 billion.

Beyond the resistance that the wholesale dollar finds around $1.500, market projections do not currently anticipate a significant jump in the exchange rate over the next few months.

The latest global report from FocusEconomics, which gathers forecasts from 47 economists from local and foreign banks and consultancies, placed the wholesale dollar at $1.648.10 by the end of December.

This figure even represents a new downward correction from the $1.659 projected in the previous survey. If the estimate is met, the dollar would end 2026 with an increase of around 13.3%.

The trend of recent surveys thus shows a moderation in depreciation expectations, although the consensus still remains above the dollar of $1.423 contemplated in the 2026 Budget for the end of the year.

Individual estimates, however, present considerable dispersion. The forecasts surveyed by FocusEconomics range between a minimum of $1.335 and a maximum of $1.850 for December.

One of the main questions left by the exchange rate scenario is the growing difference between the evolution of the dollar and that of prices. So far in 2026, the U.S. dollar has accumulated an increase of around 2.7%, while inflation exceeds 18.5% in the same period.

The difference could persist towards the end of the year. Analysts from FocusEconomics project an average inflation of 31.6% for 2026, 0.1 percentage points above the estimate from the previous survey.

In contrast, if the dollar were to finish December at the projected $1.648 by consensus, it would accumulate an annual increase of just 13.3%. Thus, the exchange rate would again advance considerably below inflation.

The evolution of activity also appears among the variables that the market monitors. FocusEconomics specialists have reduced their growth estimate by 0.1 percentage points and now expect GDP to grow by 2.9% during 2026.

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