Probability of CPI Exceeding 3% in 2026 at 100%, Interest Rate Hike Probability at 52%
Prefer us on Google
According to Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeding 3% in 2026 is indicated to be 100%. The probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September is 52%, showing a divergence between inflation bets and interest rate bets. In the market, the probabilities for 'exceeding 3%' and 'exceeding 3.5%' are both presented at 100%, with trading volume reaching approximately $1.4 million. The probability for 'exceeding 4.5%' is assessed at 12%, while 'exceeding 5%' is at 8%. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI for July rose by 3.4% compared to the previous year. The bets on exceeding 3% on Polymarket are based on official inflation trends. The betting odds for an interest rate hike are shown as 52% for the September meeting and 62% for the October meeting. Internal comments from the Fed are inconsistent, with Michael Barr stating that caution is needed regarding interest rate hikes in the event of slowing inflation. Christopher Waller indicated that if inflation continues to slow, he could support maintaining current interest rates. The response from individual investors is less hawkish than the prediction market, with 47% of respondents in a Stocktwits survey believing that there will be '0 rate hikes' this year. A critical date for Korean investors is September 11, when the August CPI will be announced.
-- Price
This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.
You may also like
Kalshi's U.S. Website Traffic Grows by 1520%, Monthly Trading Volume Reaches $40 Billion
$12.7 Billion Digital Asset Investment Fraud Suspected Transactions Confirmed
Inflation in Ukraine Rose by 7.7% in July, NBU Forecasts Year-End Rate of 10%
Producer Prices in Eurozone Rise by 1.6 Percent in July
South Korea's Foreign Exchange Reserves Increased by $14.33 Billion in August, Setting a Record
Tom Lee Optimistic About September Performance of US Stocks
Uber Cuts 3,300 Jobs as Part of Restructuring
Strive Secures Bitcoin Purchases for 9 Consecutive Trading Days via SATA
State Property Fund Attracts 258 Million UAH from Privatization
ECB's Nagel Says August Core Inflation Falls to 2.4%
Used Car Prices in Ukraine in September 2023
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Days Above 5% Reach Highest Level Since 2006
Average Gasoline Prices in the U.S. Exceed $4 per Gallon Throughout August
Fuel Prices in Romania Higher Than Neighbors
Oil Surpasses $90, Bonds and Stocks Fall on Wall Street
Usage of RLUSD on XRPL is Increasing
BYD Increases Net Profit by 30%, Export Accounts for Over Half of Revenue for the First Time
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Corporate Tax Payment Reaches 11.2083 Trillion Won in First Half, Up 167%
Tourist tax in four communities increased by 60%
Resident Foreign Currency Deposits Reach Record High of $128.34 Billion in July
Bank of Korea Raises Core Inflation Forecast to 2.5%
Salesforce Shares Rise 12% After Hours, Q2 Revenue Reaches $11.35 Billion
Dollar Rebounds to Four-Week High, Inflation Data Strengthens Rate Hike Expectations
The Share of Diesel Cars in Russia Increased Amid Gasoline Shortage
Morgan Stanley: PCE Report Fails to Lower Fed Rate Hike Expectations
European LNG Prices Hit Record High Due to Conflict in Iran
Ukrainians' Bank Deposits Reach 1.75 Trillion UAH
79% of Bond Market Participants Expect the Base Rate to Remain Unchanged at the Monetary Policy Committee on the 27th
July ICT Exports Reach $53.36 Billion, Driven by Semiconductors and SSDs
Diesel Prices in Europe, the USA, and Ukraine Rise Due to Middle East Crisis
Kalshi's U.S. Website Traffic Grows by 1520%, Monthly Trading Volume Reaches $40 Billion
$12.7 Billion Digital Asset Investment Fraud Suspected Transactions Confirmed
Inflation in Ukraine Rose by 7.7% in July, NBU Forecasts Year-End Rate of 10%
Producer Prices in Eurozone Rise by 1.6 Percent in July
South Korea's Foreign Exchange Reserves Increased by $14.33 Billion in August, Setting a Record
Tom Lee Optimistic About September Performance of US Stocks
Contents
Latest articles
Latest coin listings on WEEX
