MicroStrategy's MSCI Exclusion Risk or Already Priced In, MSTR's Net mNAV Drops Below 1 or Becomes an Opportunity

On October 17, crypto KOL CM expressed the view that the market may have already priced in the impact of MSCI's exclusion of MicroStrategy, suggesting that MSTR's stock price may not experience a significant drop when passive selling pressure actually occurs. MSTR closed down 9.56% yesterday.

Currently, there are different statistical measures for MSTR's valuation. The ordinary mNAV is the ratio of the company's stock market value to the value of its BTC holdings, while the net mNAV takes into account factors such as preferred stock and debt, reflecting the stock price relative to the net BTC value per share. It is rare for the net mNAV to drop below 1, which usually indicates that the market is beginning to worry about the company's operational status or its valuation logic.

For example, in June of this year, the market was concerned about the company's insolvency due to tight cash reserves in Strategy and falling BTC prices, which put pressure on the net mNAV. Currently, Strategy's cash reserves are ample, theoretically sufficient to cover about three years of future dividend payments, and the BTC price remains above its holding cost of approximately $75,000, making it unlikely for the net mNAV to drop to 1 again. If it does drop below 1, it may instead present an investment opportunity.

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