Diverging Year-End Outlook for Bitcoin: Optimists Eye $100,000, Cautious Focus on Inflation Pressure

Institutional views on Bitcoin's year-end performance are divided. Optimists believe Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of 2026, driven by factors such as institutional purchases through ETFs, ongoing corporate buying, concerns over inflation and government debt, and a clearer regulatory environment. Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, stated that the market may need to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, with falling oil prices and easing inflation potentially contributing to this shift. In contrast, Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, predicts that Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between $85,000 and $95,000 before year-end, with inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policies remaining market headwinds. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, pointed out that the contradiction between persistent inflation and a weakening job market will impact the Federal Reserve's future policy space: easing inflation may provide room to address job weakness, while renewed inflation could keep monetary policy restrictive.

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