Distribution Comes First Before Relief Rally: Alea Research Diagnoses Market Battleground for the Second Half

In early July, the global risk asset market rebounded on the back of easing employment indicators and reduced interest rate burdens. However, it has been diagnosed that the sustainability of this rebound will ultimately be determined by 'distribution' and actual sales. Alea Research recently reported that the nature of capital flows across cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), as well as U.S. tech stocks, stablecoins, and the tokenized stock market, is changing. They analyzed that rather than a simple relief rally, the key variable that will determine performance in the second half is who secures stronger 'distribution' capabilities.

Easing Employment Creates Rebound, But Inflation Persists

The immediate catalyst that changed the market atmosphere this week was the U.S. employment indicators. According to the report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that non-farm employment increased by 57,000 in June, and the unemployment rate recorded 4.2%. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%, and the figures for April and May were revised down by a total of 74,000. This has been interpreted as a factor that lowers the possibility of additional tightening by the Federal Reserve in July. In fact, the prediction market reflects a 91% chance of no change, an 8% chance of a 25 basis point increase, and less than 1% chance of a decrease in the Fed's decision on July 29.

However, price variables remain a burden. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Additionally, U.S. job openings totaled 7.6 million, with hiring at 5.2 million. Although the consumer confidence index rebounded, the expectations index remained below the baseline of 80 at 74.4. This means that while the market may find relief in a freeze in July, actual expectations for interest rate cuts require lower CPI, lower PCE, or more pronounced employment slowdowns.

AI Investment Stress Revealed in Asia and Exchange Rates

In the macro environment, Asia was the first to shake. China's manufacturing PMI for June re-entered the expansion phase at 50.3, but the South Korean stock market was significantly shaken by a sell-off centered on semiconductors. The sharp decline of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix triggered a volatility dampening mechanism in the KOSPI. The report interpreted this not merely as an issue of economic sensitivity but as a reflection of the market's burden regarding the concentration of AI hardware.

The dollar-yen exchange rate was also identified as an important variable. It is analyzed that as long as the yen remains above 162 against the dollar, the Bank of Japan will strongly intervene, or U.S. Treasury yields do not surge, the long-duration risk assets based on yen procurement are likely to receive support. This acts as a favorable backdrop for the Nasdaq and cryptocurrency markets, especially for high-beta assets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Different Qualities of Rebound

The cryptocurrency market rebounded in the latter half of the week, reflecting relief over interest rates and employment. However, the 'quality' of the rebound varied by asset. Alea Research noted that for Bitcoin (BTC), U.S. spot ETF funds recorded a net outflow of $219.4 million on July 1 and a net outflow of $40.4 million on July 2, evaluating that this rebound is more tactical rather than fundamentally driven.

In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) performed relatively well. The U.S. spot ETH ETF recorded net inflows of $36.6 million and $29.7 million during the same period. Looking solely at the flow of spot ETF funds, it can be interpreted that Ethereum is receiving more stable institutional interest compared to Bitcoin. At the same time, the Ethereum Foundation released a guide titled 'Ethereum for Governments and Institutions,' and the French financial infrastructure company CACEIS launched the Ethereum-based euro stablecoin EURXT. This indicates that Ethereum is gradually establishing itself as a core layer for payments, tokenization, and institutional infrastructure.

Solana and Hyperliquid: Center of On-chain Distribution War

Solana (SOL) is attempting to transition to a more institution-friendly structure by leading on-chain governance and fee structure reforms. A proposal requires 100,000 SOL to be staked to initiate, and it sets a high threshold for voting, thereby strengthening the combination of capital and governance. Notably, SIMD-547 introduces resource-based fees linked to request computation and data usage, with a structure that burns 100% of these fees. If activity is sufficiently supported, the daily burn amount could increase from the current approximately 648 SOL to between 10,800 SOL and 64,800 SOL.

Hyperliquid has been evaluated as the 'kingmaker' of the perpetual futures market. As of the last 30 days, its trading volume reached $245.2 billion, with open interest at $9.26 billion, fees at $78.13 million, and revenue at $57.4 million. Additionally, Africa's largest exchange by trading volume, VALR, plans to introduce over 200 hyperliquid perpetual futures markets, and data integration with TradingView is also being pursued. The report suggests that Hyperliquid may expand beyond a simple native exchange to become a payment and liquidity layer for regulated exchanges.

Aave and Morph: Different Strategies in DeFi

In the DeFi lending market, Aave and Morph are facing off with opposing strategies. Aave is strengthening its token value accumulation model through Aavenomics 3.0, automatic buybacks, and DAO expenditure reductions. The protocol's revenue is around $420 million, and cumulative fees have exceeded $2.21 billion. AAVE tokens have been repurchased in excess of 205,000 since April 2025, resulting in approximately 1.28% of the total supply being burned or reclaimed.

On the other hand, Morph has opted for a 'distribution'-centered strategy. Robinhood's new product, Robinhood Earn, is designed based on Morph Vault, and Standard Chartered has also set a target price, highly evaluating its long-term growth potential. From the perspective of token holders, Aave clearly captures value, while Morph expands distribution channels rapidly. This indicates that future DeFi competition is shifting from merely technological superiority to a battle of how deeply each platform penetrates.

Robinhood and OUSD: Redefining the Meaning of Distribution

The strongest theme highlighted in this report is 'distribution.' Robinhood is emerging as a distribution channel for individual investors by integrating its own chain, tokenized stocks, agent-based trading, DeFi deposit products, and perpetual futures all on one screen. Stock Tokens are already operational in over 120 countries, and with the combination of Morph-based Earn and writer-based perpetual futures, the Robinhood ecosystem is rapidly expanding the intersection of cryptocurrency and traditional finance.

In the stablecoin sector, Open Standard's OUSD has gained attention. OUSD boasts zero-fee issuance and redemption, partner-based reserve income distribution, and partner governance. Participating companies include over 140 entities such as Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Google, Shopify, Solana, and Aave. The report evaluates that stablecoins are no longer a monopoly revenue model of a single issuer but are transitioning to a structure where 'those with distribution networks win,' which may pose a burden on USDC and Circle (CRCL), while Tether (USDT), with strong exchange liquidity and overseas market dominance, is relatively defensive.

AI Leaders and Cryptocurrencies Face the Same Questions

The message is the same in the U.S. stock market. Core AI stocks like Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google continue to make massive capital investments, but the market is now questioning whether that spending translates into actual sales and free cash flow. Meta's plan to sell excess AI computing capacity is both a bullish factor and signifies intensified supply competition among hyperscalers. Consequently, some AI infrastructure-related stocks like CoreWeave and Nebius are under pressure.

Cryptocurrencies are also facing the same questions. Simple narratives and expectations are insufficient; there must be transparent revenue structures and repeatable buying layers. Major assets including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) have rebounded thanks to easing interest rate burdens, but if ETF capital flows and real usage indicators do not support this, the rebound could end as a short-lived relief rally.

Ultimately, the winner of this rebound is clear. Alea Research diagnoses that the market now values 'strong distribution' and 'sustainable revenue' more highly than 'good stories.' While the preference for risk assets has clearly returned, future performance is likely to be determined by who brings in more users, connects that flow to revenue, and returns it to token or shareholder value. Even in a seemingly quiet market, the standards are already becoming more stringent.

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