Bitcoin in a Range: Is it a Signal for Accumulation? Crypto.com Highlights ETF Inflows and Regulatory Developments

Last week, the global asset market showed signs of instability across risk assets due to a sharp decline in tech stocks, heightened geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in monetary policy. According to research from Crypto.com, the U.S. stock market faced pressure from weak semiconductor stocks, and despite net inflows into Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs, prices continued to fluctuate within a limited range. However, on-chain indicators suggest that the market may have entered a phase of 'quiet accumulation,' and the ongoing regulatory adjustments and expansion of stablecoin and tokenization infrastructure are expected to broaden the structural foundation of the cryptocurrency market in the medium to long term.

Global Market Under Macroeconomic Stress: Tech Stocks and Oil Prices Become Variables

The U.S. stock market generally exhibited weakness last week. The Nasdaq index plummeted by 2.9%, and the S&P 500 index closed down 1.6% at 7,475.69, falling below the 50-day moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped by 0.9%. At the center of the market shock was skepticism regarding investments in artificial intelligence. Major tech companies, including Nvidia, continue to make large capital investments, but concerns about low visibility for short-term profitability have grown, causing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) to fall nearly 10%.

Additionally, instability in the Middle East has weighed on investor sentiment. With the failure to ease tensions in the region and the U.S. implementing maritime blockade measures in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices surged by about 20% in just ten days. This has raised concerns about inflation re-stimulation and acted as a factor weakening market expectations for interest rate cuts, despite a slowdown in the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate. Particularly, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh have increased pressure, and even JPMorgan Chase's strong performance could not offset the macroeconomic headwinds.

Continued Range for Bitcoin Despite ETF Inflows: On-Chain Signals 'Quiet Accumulation'

In the cryptocurrency market, institutional capital inflows and price stagnation have occurred simultaneously. According to Crypto.com researchers, the U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETF saw a net inflow of $76 million, while the Ethereum (ETH) spot ETF had a net inflow of $106 million. Nevertheless, Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $62,000 to $64,000, failing to establish a clear direction. This level is approximately 50% lower than the peak of $124,000 recorded in October 2025, and the market has been engaged in a range battle between $60,000 and $80,000 for the past five months.

Notably, on-chain indicators are significant. The RHODL ratio, which compares the wealth distribution between long-term and short-term holders, rose to 13 in early July but has since fallen below 10. This period of simultaneous price stabilization and indicator compression is interpreted as similar to the 'quiet accumulation' phases observed in the past in 2019, 2022, and 2023. This suggests that rather than a signal for a short-term surge, market participants are gradually building positions during a period of reduced volatility.

In terms of specific assets, Chainlink (LINK) showed relative strength with a weekly increase of 4.7%, while the DeFi sector saw the liquid staking sector rise by 5.0%, achieving the best performance. ONDO Finance's price and volatility expanded following news of its partnership with Japan's SBI Group.

Regulatory Adjustments in the U.S., U.K., and South Korea Accelerate, Attention on Stablecoin Institutionalization

The pace of regulatory and institutional integration movements is also accelerating. In the U.S., the CLARITY Act, a bill related to cryptocurrency crime enforcement, gained its second official endorsement from the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association (FLEOA), boosting its legislative momentum. The U.K. tax authority, HMRC, plans to introduce a 'non-recognition of profit and loss' tax principle for cryptocurrency lending and liquidity provision transactions starting in April 2027. This approach is expected to defer capital gains tax burdens until actual economic dispositions occur, providing a clearer tax framework for DeFi and stablecoin-based financial activities.

In South Korea, efforts are underway to amend a 76-year-old law to officially classify virtual assets as national assets and integrate them into the legal and economic system. Bolivia is also reviewing a regulatory framework to utilize Tether (USDT) in its national payment system. This trend indicates that the cryptocurrency market is no longer peripheral finance but is gradually being absorbed into the payment, asset management, and tax systems of various countries.

Visa, Wall Street, and Japanese Corporations Join the Expansion of Blockchain Commercialization

The adoption of blockchain by traditional financial institutions is becoming more concrete. Visa has launched the 'Visa Stablecoin Platform (VSP)' to support financial institutions and businesses in issuing and settling stablecoins. The U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) successfully processed tokenized securities transactions in a real operational environment in collaboration with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock, demonstrating the feasibility of tokenized finance. Additionally, Securitize and Cantor Fitzgerald have begun collaborating to establish infrastructure for tokenized initial public offerings (IPOs).

The expansion in the Japanese market is also notable. JCB is considering the introduction of stablecoins for cross-border payments in partnership with Circle, while the SBI Group is collaborating with the Solana Foundation to build a market for yen-linked stablecoins and tokenization of physical assets. The Japanese convenience store brand Lawson plans to conduct a test of yen stablecoin payments at its Tokyo stores starting in August. As shown in the Crypto.com research report, the recent cryptocurrency market is laying its foundations across four pillars: ETF capital inflows, on-chain accumulation signals, regulatory adjustments, and the introduction of blockchain in traditional finance. While it may be premature to assert a trend reversal for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), it is clear that the market's focus is shifting from speculation to infrastructure and institutionalization.

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