One billion dollars in three days is not enough. Bitcoin faces a significant challenge

American spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin are once again attracting capital returning to the market. According to the latest calculations from the analytical platform SoSoValue, a staggering $1.08 billion has flowed into these instruments in just three business days.

Despite such a high value, experts and market analysts are tempering overly optimistic sentiments among individual investors. They point out that the current pace of fund inflows still lags significantly behind the values that in previous years drove the most spectacular waves of cryptocurrency price increases. For a sustainable breakthrough of technical resistances and the establishment of new historical peaks, the continuity of capital inflow must remain at a higher, more predictable level.

A breakthrough in the approach of funds is noted, among others, by Vikram Subburaj, the CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Giottus, who emphasizes that the improvement in demand for digital assets from institutions is still very exploratory and sensitive to fluctuations in the economic climate. It is also evident that after a strong start to the week, net inflows to spot funds again need stabilization to maintain the current price movement dynamics.

The history of previous bull markets shows that the strongest rallies in the digital asset market were characterized by very specific capital flow patterns. Since the approval and market debut of the funds in January 2024, Bitcoin has gone through three massive waves of growth, each bringing a valuation jump of at least 50%, without allowing deeper corrections of more than 20% from established peaks. During all these successful periods, the average daily net capital inflow to American ETFs regularly exceeded the threshold of $200 million.

Will the inflows be enough to continue the bull market?

Average daily net inflows to American spot ETFs for BTC (source: SoSoValue)

A detailed analysis of the indicators shows how high the demands of the past digital market place on investors. The first wave of increases from late January to March 2024 brought a price jump from $39,900 to $71,400, representing a dynamic increase of 79%. During that period, an average of $294 million flowed into the funds daily, with as many as ten trading sessions recording inflows exceeding $500 million, and once even surpassing the $1 billion mark. The second phase of the bull market, developing from August to December 2024, raised the market valuation of the cryptocurrency from $54,100 to $106,100, generating an average daily inflow of $202 million. The third significant rally from April to July 2025 brought a 53% increase, raising the price from $78,400 to $119,900 with average deposits of around $248 million daily. Over a total of 199 trading days encompassing these three massive waves, a staggering $46.7 billion flowed into the funds, averaging $235 million per trading session.

The current statistical balance looks much calmer, prompting many observers to exercise caution. Since the beginning of July, the market value of the cryptocurrency has increased by 39%, moving from around $60,000 to approximately $83,500. During the same time, the listed funds managed to record only seven days with a balance of deposits exceeding $500 million, which gives a frequency of once every eleven trading days. In comparison, during the previous three bull waves, such a result appeared on average once every five days. Furthermore, the average daily deposits since July amount to a modest $86 million, and the market has yet to experience a single day with an inflow of $1 billion.

Alternative sources of demand may surprise the market

Basing forecasts solely on the behavior of American ETFs may, however, prove to be too simplistic for the complex market machinery. Although these indicators serve as a valuable guide for investors, the valuation of cryptocurrencies also depends on many other liquidity factors. The revival of demand in the spot market, increased activity from retail investors on cryptocurrency exchanges, and rising volumes in the futures market also have the potential to trigger a strong wave of growth. Similar observations are made by stock market analysts, indicating that the trading structure is undergoing continuous evolution.

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