Bitcoin Falls Below $78,000, Weak Historical Performance in September

On September 1, Bitcoin started weakly, falling below $78,000. Since 2013, September has been the worst-performing month for Bitcoin on average, with an average decline of about 3% and only 5 instances of monthly gains, earning it the nickname "Rektember." However, Bitcoin has recorded gains in the past three Septembers, following a roughly 25% increase in August, marking the strongest monthly performance since November 2024. In the short term, it may face consolidation or even correction pressure. The macro environment also poses challenges. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller released hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole conference, the global bond market faced a sell-off, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly rising to 4.784%. The market expects a roughly 66% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve on September 16, with bets on further rate increases within the year. High interest rates typically tighten financial conditions, support the dollar, and exert pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, with WTI crude nearing $88 per barrel, while gold fell over 2% on Tuesday. Traditional markets also face seasonal pressures, as September has been the only month with an average negative performance for the S&P 500 index since 1975.

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