Bitcoin cycle bottom unconfirmed, downside risk persists

Bitcoin's cycle strength is weakening, with the 30-day moving average of the Cycle Extremes Index dropping to 15.8%, indicating a 'Watch' and 'Mild Pressure' range. Despite a notable correction, the index is far from the activation phase associated with overheated market activity. Historically, the index surged during Bitcoin's 2021 peak and the anticipated 2024-2025 rally, but current cycle strength has sharply declined. This suggests eased market pressure, yet the risk of further declines remains. The Cycle Extreme Oscillator's 30-day moving average is near the lower end of its historical range and below the 1.0 threshold linked to strong market movements. Currently, no clear cycle-extreme signal is observed. Together, these indicators imply Bitcoin is in an ongoing correction with reduced market activity, rather than confirming a cycle bottom. Low indicator readings alone do not indicate that selling pressure has been exhausted, and further sideways trading or additional declines cannot be ruled out before a sustained recovery.

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