202 billion U.S. Treasury settlement on September 30 could impact Bitcoin

A 202 billion U.S. Treasury coupon settlement on September 30 will test overnight financing at quarter-end. The Federal Home Loan Bank of New York indicates the market is currently calm but warns that new supply could increase repo borrowing rates, potentially affecting Bitcoin. The settlement includes a reopened 10-year inflation-protected bond and two-, five-, and seven-year notes, totaling 202 billion. On the same day, 143.58 billion of publicly held coupon debt will mature, resulting in a net new face value of 58.42 billion. This figure represents securities issued beyond maturities, not a cash drain or decline in bank reserves. The New York Fed plans approximately 15.6 billion in reinvestment purchases from September 15 to October 14, with no reserve-management purchases. Current SOFR, a measure of overnight Treasury-backed borrowing costs, was 3.88% on September 24, slightly up from 3.85% on September 18 and 21. A significant rise in SOFR at quarter-end that quickly fades would indicate weaker market signals. Traders will monitor for signs of Bitcoin spillover, including weakening perpetual-futures funding or narrowing futures premiums. If repo rates and Bitcoin funding remain stable post-settlement, the expected spillover may lack evidence.

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